FODEP QUESTIONS POLL CREDIBILITY

…raises concerns over results management, turnout, campaign conditions and election security

By Francis Maingaila ♥️ 

Lusaka, Zambia24 -- 25 The Foundation for Democratic Process (FODEP) has raised questions over the credibility of Zambia’s August 13 general elections, saying concerns surrounding results management, voter turnout, campaign conditions and election-related security incidents need to be properly investigated.

FODEP Board Chairperson Mumbuna Mwenda, however, says the organisation has not reached a final verdict on the election as it is still analysing information collected by its monitors across the country.

Mr Mwenda said FODEP was examining rejected ballots, voter turnout, the concentration of votes and figures recorded at polling stations and comparing them with results announced at constituency and other tallying centres.

He said the exercise was aimed at establishing whether the differences being reported were isolated cases or pointed to wider patterns in the election.

“We are in the process of analysing specific statistics to do with the spread of rejected ballots, concentration and voter turnout. We want to establish whether there are patterns and trends,” Mr Mwenda said.

He said FODEP would compare reports from its monitors with official records and results announced by the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) before making its final assessment.

Mr Mwenda said FODEP had applied for accreditation for 1,200 monitors, but the ECZ accredited 972, of whom 876 successfully deployed themselves across all 10 provinces.

He said the deployment was not statistically uniform, with some monitors covering all polling stations in a district while others covered only a small proportion.

Mr Mwenda said FODEP’s monitoring exercise was therefore mainly intended to assess the quality of the electoral process and was not a statistically representative parallel vote tabulation.

He said although the submission of reports varied from one area to another, FODEP had received reports covering more than 30 percent of the areas it was monitoring when it began compiling its interim findings.

He stressed that all reports received would be considered before the organisation released its final report.

FODEP Praises Voters

Despite the concerns, Mr Mwenda commended Zambians for turning out to vote and remaining patient throughout the electoral process.

He said voting was peaceful and orderly at 98 percent of the polling stations observed by FODEP monitors.

He said monitors also found that polling officials generally followed procedures, including showing that ballot boxes were empty before voting started and properly sealing them before polling commenced.

FODEP also commended Government for funding the elections at about K2.2 billion.

Mr Mwenda said the funding showed that Zambia had taken responsibility for financing its democratic process.

He also said the ECZ managed its preparations fairly well despite working under pressure following changes to electoral laws close to the election.

FODEP further welcomed the introduction of the mixed-member proportional representation system, saying it could help improve the representation of women, young people and persons with disabilities in Parliament.

Mr Mwenda also noted that internet services remained available during the election period, allowing citizens to communicate and follow developments.

Late Law Changes

However, FODEP said the timing of changes to electoral laws was a major concern.

Mr Mwenda said the Constitution Amendment Act was passed about seven months before the election, while changes to the Electoral Process Act were made only about three months before polling day.

He said this left the ECZ, political parties, observers and other stakeholders with little time to adjust to the new requirements.

FODEP also questioned the creation of 70 new constituencies only four months before the election.

The move increased the number of constituencies from 156 to 226.

Mr Mwenda said the ECZ needed more time to properly organise the new constituencies, polling districts and wards and deal with the related logistical requirements.

Observer Accreditation Problems

FODEP also complained about problems encountered during the accreditation of election observers.

Mr Mwenda said the online accreditation system experienced technical difficulties and became congested.

This forced the ECZ to introduce a paper-and-online system late in the process, according to FODEP.

He said the problems affected FODEP’s ability to deploy as many monitors as it had planned.

G20 Forms Raise Questions

Mr Mwenda said FODEP monitors found cases where copies of G20 results forms were placed inside ballot boxes together with ballot papers.

He said this meant that ballot boxes had to be opened at collection centres to retrieve the forms.

According to FODEP, the practice caused unnecessary delays and confusion and created room for suspicion among political parties and observers.

Mr Mwenda said election officials needed to follow clear procedures on how G20 forms were handled to avoid such situations in future.

Results Management Under Spotlight

Mr Mwenda said some of FODEP’s biggest concerns were emerging from the results management and tabulation stage.

He said the organisation was comparing photographic evidence of G20 forms taken at individual polling stations with figures recorded at constituency tallying centres.

The exercise, he said, had identified cases where figures recorded at polling stations did not match those entered at higher levels.

Mr Mwenda said some differences appeared to have resulted from data-entry errors and were corrected after intervention by candidates or their representatives.

He said FODEP was also looking at voter turnout, particularly in areas where the figures appeared unusually high or low.

Mr Mwenda said turnout had to be considered against the number of registered voters rather than the general population.

“It is not about the population. It is about saying we had, for example, 80,000 and only 45,000 voted. Why did it happen that way?” he said.

He said FODEP was particularly interested in cases where its monitors reported low turnout or alleged movement of voters, while official results later showed significantly higher turnout.

Mr Mwenda said such cases would be investigated to establish whether they were isolated incidents or part of a wider trend.

He said FODEP had also interacted with organisations that conducted parallel vote tabulations and found that some had raised similar questions over differences between polling-station figures and totals announced at higher levels.

Mr Mwenda said FODEP had therefore flagged the differences for further analysis.

He said the organisation was also studying the spread of rejected ballots and the concentration of votes to see whether there were any unusual patterns.

Lost Election Materials

FODEP is also following reports of lost or stolen election materials and their possible effect on the final results.

Mr Mwenda said where results from one or two polling stations were affected, it could be possible to determine whether excluding those results would have materially changed the overall outcome.

However, he said the situation became more difficult where election result documents were lost or stolen at tallying centres because the affected results could be difficult to reconstruct.

He said FODEP was monitoring such cases and expected the ECZ to deal with them in accordance with the law.

Violence Hits Collation Centres

FODEP also reported security problems at some collation centres.

Mr Mwenda said one collation centre was reportedly invaded, forcing officials to stop their work.

He said a gas canister was also allegedly detonated inside another centre on August 18, forcing electoral officials and observers to leave the premises.

There were also reports of physical violence and theft of election materials in some areas.

Mr Mwenda said these incidents were worrying because collation centres are where results from different polling stations are brought together before being announced.

FODEP Questions Results Suspension

FODEP has also questioned the ECZ’s decision to suspend the counting and announcement of results across the country on August 14.

Mr Mwenda said the decision created unnecessary uncertainty because areas where the process was going on peacefully were also affected.

He said the ECZ should, in future, deal with problems in the specific areas where they occur instead of stopping the process across the country unless there was a clear reason for doing so.

Unequal Campaign Environment

FODEP said the campaign period did not provide an equal playing field for all political parties.

Mr Mwenda said the advantage enjoyed by the incumbent was particularly visible during the presidential campaign.

“The incumbents’ advantage did play out, especially at the presidential level,” he said.

He said President Hakainde Hichilema was able to travel across the country for official engagements at a time when other political players faced restrictions on their campaign activities.

Mr Mwenda said it was sometimes difficult to draw a clear line between the President’s official duties and campaign activities.

He said the issue of incumbency advantage had already been raised in FODEP’s preliminary statement and would be dealt with in greater detail in the final report.

FODEP also complained that State media, including ZNBC television and radio, gave more coverage to the ruling party.

Mr Mwenda said political parties experienced clashes and disruptions during the campaign, while the Public Order Act was not always applied equally.

He said restrictions on access to campaign venues and public spaces affected the electoral playing field.

Party Financing

FODEP also expressed concern over the lack of a law regulating political party financing.

Mr Mwenda said the absence of clear rules made it difficult to know where political parties were getting their money from and how campaign funds were being spent.

He said Zambia needed clear rules requiring political parties to account for campaign money and contributions.

Candidate Withdrawals

Mr Mwenda said the withdrawal of candidates during the election period also exposed weaknesses in the law.

He said some withdrawals were made amid allegations of intimidation and coercion.

He said the issue became more complicated following the 2025 constitutional amendments and the July 31, 2026 Constitutional Court ruling that a presidential candidate could not withdraw after nomination except in the event of death.

FODEP said the law needed to be clearer on how candidate withdrawals should be handled.

FODEP Wants Security Probe

FODEP has called for an independent inquiry into the death of former Defence Minister Davies Chama during a joint security operation on August 14.

Mr Mwenda said police had explained that the operation targeted suspected members of a group under investigation.

However, he said an internal police investigation alone would not be enough to answer all the questions surrounding the incident.

FODEP therefore wants an independent inquiry to establish what happened and examine how force was used during the operation.

Mr Mwenda said FODEP had not yet engaged extensively with police over individual election-related incidents and had largely relied on information from its monitors and information already in the public domain.

He said the organisation would continue engaging stakeholders as it worked towards its final report.

Post-Election Tensions

FODEP also reported cases of disturbances, market disruptions and arrests of some political figures after the election.

Mr Mwenda said incidents around the Judiciary of Zambia during the period for filing presidential election petitions were worrying.

He said people must be allowed to access the courts because the Judiciary is the proper place to challenge election results.

He warned that restricting access to the courts could leave aggrieved candidates and their supporters feeling that they had no peaceful way of seeking justice.

FODEP's Position

Mr Mwenda said FODEP recognised that election day itself was largely peaceful and that voting went well at most polling stations monitored by the organisation.

However, he said the country should not look at election day alone when assessing whether an election was credible.

He said what happened during the campaign, counting, results management and the period after voting was equally important.

Mr Mwenda said FODEP believed the presidential results announced by the ECZ broadly reflected the outcome of the election.

But he stressed that the organisation’s interim observations should not be taken as a final verdict on the credibility of the election.

He said FODEP was still examining evidence collected from across the country and wanted to establish whether the reported differences were isolated incidents or part of wider patterns.

“The final report will provide a clearer picture,” Mr Mwenda said.

He said the organisation would continue analysing the evidence before issuing its final assessment.

FODEP Calls for Reforms

FODEP wants the ECZ to publish G20 results from individual polling stations online so that citizens, political parties and observers can check the figures for themselves.

The organisation also wants the ECZ to stop the practice of putting G20 forms inside ballot boxes and to have clear procedures for dealing with disruptions during counting and results management.

FODEP has further called for major changes to electoral laws to be completed at least 12 months before future elections.

The organisation wants Government and Parliament to enact laws governing political party and campaign financing, replace the Public Order Act and strengthen protection for people seeking access to the courts during election petitions.

Mr Mwenda also urged security agencies to remain neutral in political matters and to account publicly for election-related security operations.

He appealed to political parties and their supporters to avoid violence and use the courts to settle disputes.

Mr Mwenda said the experience of the 2026 elections should be used to correct weaknesses in the electoral system and ensure that future elections are more transparent, trusted and accepted by Zambians.