OPPOSITION FRAGMENTATION HANDS MORGAN MUUNDA EASY PATH TO VICTORY

By Francis Maingaila ♥️ 

Lusaka, Zambia24 — (14-01-2026) -- Opposition fragmentation will give an advantage to Morgan Muunda to an easy victory in tomorrow’s parliamentary by-election occasioned by the continued absence of incumbent area Member of Parliament Tasila Lungu, political analyst Peter Simpemba has said.

Simpemba said the crowded opposition field has significantly weakened the chances of defeating Muunda, as multiple candidates are drawing support from the same voter base, resulting in a split vote.

He explained that under normal circumstances, a competitive opposition could mount a strong challenge, but divisions among rival candidates have instead worked in Muunda’s favour.

“Where the opposition is fragmented, it creates desperation and divides the vote. That situation benefits one candidate who remains stable and well-positioned,” Simpemba said.

Simpemba noted that several individuals in the constituency command pockets of support, including local political figures and community influencers, all of whom are competing for the same electorate.

He said figures such as Captain Davis, a councillor in the area, and other known personalities, including those aligned to Freedom, are capable of pulling votes, but none has consolidated enough support to present a unified challenge.

“When you have two or more candidates appealing to the same group of voters, the outcome is predictable—the vote is split on polling day,” he said.

Simpemba further said Muunda’s advantage goes beyond opposition fragmentation, citing his long-standing presence in Chirama as a key factor.

“Morgan Muunda has stayed in Chirama for a long time. He is known by the people, understands their issues, and has built relationships over the years. That familiarity gives him a clear edge,” he said.

He added that even if Muunda had contested as an independent candidate, his personal standing and grassroots visibility would still have placed him ahead of his rivals.

The by-election was necessitated by the continued absence of incumbent Member of Parliament Tasila Lungu, creating a political vacuum that has intensified competition among opposition candidates.

Simpemba said unless the opposition had agreed on a single candidate, the by-election outcome was largely predictable.

“As things stand, the conditions strongly favour Morgan Muunda,” he said.