CSPR Urges Discipline After IMF Review

Zambians urged to stay vigilant as final IMF disbursement signals milestone in economic recovery

By Francis Maingaila ♥️ 

Lusaka, Zambia — The Civil Society for Poverty Reduction (CSPR) has urged the public to stay vigilant and demand discipline as Zambia concludes its IMF Extended Credit Facility (ECF) programme, following the sixth and final staff-level review by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), saying citizens must ensure that economic gains translate into real improvements for the population.

CSPR Executive Director Isabel Mutembo Mukelabai told journalists in a statement that the final review, which is subject to IMF Executive Board approval, will unlock a final disbursement of SDR 138.9 million (about US$190 million). 

According to Mukelabai this brings total IMF support to around US$1.7 billion since August 2022, with the programme scheduled to formally end on January 30, 2026.

Mukelabai said the review shows that Zambia has made strong progress in stabilising the economy, despite challenges such as droughts and global economic uncertainty. 

She said the IMF noted reduced macroeconomic imbalances, fiscal discipline, and protection of social spending.

She added that international reserves now cover over four months of imports, inflation is expected to fall to single digits by 2026-2027, and the exchange rate is stabilising. These are signs of a stronger economy compared to the start of the ECF programme.

However, Mukelabai warned that poverty and inequality remain high. 

She said macroeconomic improvements have not yet benefited most citizens. She called for stronger social protection systems in line with the Eighth National Development Plan (8th NDP).

On economic growth, Mukelabai said the IMF projects 5.2 percent GDP growth in 2025 and 5.6 percent in 2026. 

She warned that the economy still relies heavily on copper mining and agriculture, making it vulnerable to commodity price changes, climate shocks, and global demand shifts. 

She also noted a current account deficit of 2.1 percent of GDP.

Mukelabai welcomed strong fiscal performance, including a primary surplus of 2.2 percent of GDP in 2025 and improved non-mining revenue. 

However, she stressed that Zambia remains at high risk of debt distress, even though debt is technically sustainable.

She cautioned that the upcoming election could increase spending pressures. She urged the Government to seal revenue leaks, avoid unplanned expenditures, and maintain fiscal discipline to protect public services.

Mukelabai also expressed concern over increased commercial and non-concessional domestic borrowing. 

She said the end of the ECF removes an important external discipline mechanism, raising the risk of new debt accumulation.

She called on the Government to stick to the Debt Management Strategy and clearly outline post-ECF financing plans, especially as debt restructuring with some private creditors is still pending.

Mukelabai said social spending increased during the programme. But she warned that sustaining these gains depends on stronger domestic revenue collection, better public financial management, and action against waste and illicit flows.

She noted that key structural reforms remain unfinished, especially in governance, oversight of state-owned enterprises, and accountability. 

She urged faster anti-corruption reforms, transparency in public appointments, and cost-reflective energy pricing to reduce fiscal risks.

Mukelabai concluded that while the final ECF review is a major milestone, Zambia remains vulnerable to debt risks, climate shocks, reliance on a single export commodity, unresolved private creditor issues, and limited fiscal space, with debt service expected to take up about 30 percent of the 2026 national budget.

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