Zambia Records Trade Deficit

ZamStats blames Copper Export Earnings for the Decline

By Francis Maingaila

LUSAKA – Zambia recorded a trade deficit of K3.3 billion in December 2024, reversing a surplus of K1.1 billion in November 2024, according to the latest statistics released by the Zambia Statistics Agency (ZamStats). The decline was primarily driven by a sharp drop in non-traditional exports (NTEs) and reduced copper export earnings.

Acting Statistician General Sheila S. Mudenda stated that international merchandise trade increased by 41.2% in December 2024 compared to December 2023.

The total trade value for the month stood at K57.7 billion, up from K40.6 billion recorded in December 2023. Despite the overall increase in trade activity, exports fell by 14.2%, while imports remained relatively stable, declining by only 0.4%.

Mudenda attributed the decrease in exports to reduced earnings from intermediate goods, which dropped by 14.8%, raw materials by 17%, and consumer goods by 2.8%. 

Imports of raw materials also saw a significant 20.3% decline, while consumer goods imports dropped by 3.8%.

Non-traditional exports (NTEs) experienced a steep 35.1% decline, falling from K11 billion in November 2024 to K7.1 billion in December 2024. Agriculture-related NTEs also dropped by 23.8%, driven by lower tobacco and oil cake exports. 

Meanwhile, gold export earnings declined by 5%, falling from K305.2 million in November 2024 to K290 million in December 2024.

Traditional exports, mainly refined copper, dropped by 2.9% from K20.5 billion in November to K19.9 billion in December.

 Refined copper export earnings decreased by 2.8%, from K20.4 billion to K19.8 billion, despite a 0.5% increase in export volumes from 79,500 metric tons to 80,000 metric tons. 

The London Metal Exchange (LME) price for copper dropped by 1.7% from $9,100 per ton in November to $8,900 per ton in December.

On the import side, intermediate goods accounted for 43.5% of total imports, while consumer goods comprised 30%. Zambia’s major trading partners remained Switzerland and Asia, which accounted for 53.6% and 22.7% of total exports, respectively. 

However, the country recorded trade deficits with Asia (K8 billion), SADC excluding South Africa (K7.5 billion), SADC (K1.1 billion), and COMESA excluding SADC (K1 billion). A slight trade surplus of K200 million was registered with the European Union.

Mudenda also noted price fluctuations in essential goods and vehicles. The median price of maize meal dropped from K258.18 to K256.29 per 25 kg bag. 

Prices of dried fish also fell, with the cost of 1 kg of dried carp decreasing from K364.19 to K360. However, vehicle prices increased in January 2025. 

The national average price for a Toyota Highlander rose to K1,948,800 from K1,945,400 in December 2024. Prices for the Toyota Corolla, Nissan Almera 1.5 Centre, and Nissan Hardbody pickup also recorded increases.

In addition to trade statistics, Mudenda announced upcoming releases of key reports.

 The revised Population Summary Report Volume 2 will be published on February 13, 2025, providing updated demographic data. 

A series of United Nations-type descriptive tables summarizing socio-economic trends will be released on March 21, 2025, alongside the National Analytical Report and the Population Projections Report.

Further reports expected later in the year include the Provincial Analytical Reports in May, the Housing and Household Conditions Report, the Child Marriage Report in June, and the Activity Limitation Report in July.

 These reports aim to provide comprehensive data to support policymakers, researchers, and development planners.

Mudenda emphasized that ZamStats remains committed to providing accurate and timely statistical data to inform decision-making. She encouraged stakeholders to utilize the forthcoming reports for policy formulation and economic planning.